Research

Published

Compulsory preferential voting, social media and ‘come-from-behind’ electoral victories in Australia

Professor Benjamin Reilly and Jack Hudson Stewart
Australian Journal of Political Science, 56(1), 99-112

Read here: https://doi.org/10.1080/10361146.2021.1879010

What is the relationship between Australia’s system of compulsory preferential voting and the ideological stance of elected members? Utilising a unique dataset of social media communication from the 2013 federal election, we show how preference flows influence parliamentarians’ subsequent communications to voters. MPs who were behind on the first count but gained sufficient preferences to win a seat – whom we call ‘come-from-behind’ winners – adopted distinctively centrist communication strategies, occupying an ideological ‘cross-over zone’ between the most right-leaning Labor member and most left-leaning Coalition member. Most of these ‘come-from-behind’ winners today are Labor MPs, illustrating the changing partisan impact of compulsory preferential voting, from historically advantaging the conservative side of politics to now clearly benefitting Labor and, to a lesser extent, independent candidates.

Under Review

Title withheld

Jack Hudson Stewart and Dr Lachlan Umbers

Abstract (temporarily) withheld.

Other

Here’s why the Coalition favours optional preferential voting: it would devastate Labor

Professor Benjamin Reilly
The Conversation

Read here: The Conversation

I compiled the data for this article. In 2019, the joint standing committee on electoral matters recommended that Australia should replace compulsory preferential voting with optional preferential voting. The former requires voters to rank all candidates on their ballot from most preferred to least preferred, whereas the latter only requires that voters rank one candidate, with the option to rank more. Utilising data about preference flows in New South Wales, where optional preferential voting is used, we explain how optional preferencing could benefit the Liberal-National Coalition.